In-Running Scalping Of Sprint Races

Earlier in the year I happened to mention on Twitter that I was looking at improving the in-running scalping technique so that it could be used on sprint races with a little more consistency. If you are not familar with my IR scalping technique please visit the Bet Your Life Sports Trading Youtube Channel where you'll find lots of videos demonstrating it.

Here's a summary of what I've found, in no particular order:

1. Be very wary of using this technique on sprints on the AW tracks. These sprints generally involve a bend where runners usually go round in double file. This seems to affect the way the odds move in-play which tend not to be in your favour come the half-way point and don't resolve themselves until coming down the home straight.

2. Capitalise on the natural volatility of the sprints by increasing the size of offset you use. 1-2 ticks seems to suit longer races. In sprints you should be able to double this or more.

3. Reduce the 'fill or kill' settings to match the length of the race in furlongs as a maximum. i.e. 6 secs for 6 furlong sprint. Do not go any higher.

4. Do NOT use the 'Repeat on Success' feature in Fairbot or equivalent utility if your preferred trading software has it.

5. Do NOT reenter the market after the half-way point. You can hang on a little longer if you have an unmatched back bet waiting in the market rather than trading out at that point. There's a high probability that the volatility in the market will still cause it to be successfully matched.

6. Do NOT recycle bets through the market more than twice for 5 and 6 furlong races. That's not to say you can't, but I'd advise against it until you are happy with the technique. You can generally manage three cycles in 7 furlong races. This guidance is directly related to the 'fill or kill' settings you specify.

7. If your software allows it, increase the number of odds you can see on the grid and place your lays further away from the current market price, i.e. 5-6 ticks below rather 2-3 ticks below. This will reduce the number of times you get matched but increase the likelihood of matched lays 'bouncing' back up to their trade out point.

8. Reduce the odds at which you are prepared to lay. For example, in longer races you can probably lay up to odds of 20. In sprints I'd keep it below 10.0 or even 5.0. This will reduce the number of qualifying selections at any given time but protect against a sudden drop of a higher priced runner.

9. Think about reducing your stakes a bit compared to those you use in longer races.

That's enough for you to be getting on with. Remember, use simulation mode until you are happy with what you are doing. Let me know how you get on.


Unknown said...

Always sound advice as usual Alistair.

I have taken a break from "trading" until October as I just wanted to watch and enjoy all the sporting action this summer.

Regards - Robin

Alistair said...

It has been a fabulous summer of sport has it not? The Olympics and now the Paralympics are inspirational as ever.

M said...

Thanks a lot for the tips.

I love that you explain your thoughts in a cristal clear, unassuming way. So different from the pretencious "star tipsters" out there.

Besides, I like his spproach to in-play trading. And yes, I agree that we should work differently with short and long races. I´d put the fence in the 1 mile races (less than that, is "short". 7 Furlong races can be tricky, though.

Thannk you, Alistair, sir!

Alistair said...

Thanks for the comment M.

Everyone should keep in mind that although the above tips should help, sprint races are still a bit risky. The suggestions above may need tweaking to suit your own particular style. They are not meant as a guaranteed strategy for short races.