In-Running Scalping Of Sprint Races

Earlier in the year I happened to mention on Twitter that I was looking at improving the in-running scalping technique so that it could be used on sprint races with a little more consistency. If you are not familar with my IR scalping technique please visit the Bet Your Life Sports Trading Youtube Channel where you'll find lots of videos demonstrating it.

Here's a summary of what I've found, in no particular order:

1. Be very wary of using this technique on sprints on the AW tracks. These sprints generally involve a bend where runners usually go round in double file. This seems to affect the way the odds move in-play which tend not to be in your favour come the half-way point and don't resolve themselves until coming down the home straight.

2. Capitalise on the natural volatility of the sprints by increasing the size of offset you use. 1-2 ticks seems to suit longer races. In sprints you should be able to double this or more.

3. Reduce the 'fill or kill' settings to match the length of the race in furlongs as a maximum. i.e. 6 secs for 6 furlong sprint. Do not go any higher.

4. Do NOT use the 'Repeat on Success' feature in Fairbot or equivalent utility if your preferred trading software has it.

5. Do NOT reenter the market after the half-way point. You can hang on a little longer if you have an unmatched back bet waiting in the market rather than trading out at that point. There's a high probability that the volatility in the market will still cause it to be successfully matched.

6. Do NOT recycle bets through the market more than twice for 5 and 6 furlong races. That's not to say you can't, but I'd advise against it until you are happy with the technique. You can generally manage three cycles in 7 furlong races. This guidance is directly related to the 'fill or kill' settings you specify.

7. If your software allows it, increase the number of odds you can see on the grid and place your lays further away from the current market price, i.e. 5-6 ticks below rather 2-3 ticks below. This will reduce the number of times you get matched but increase the likelihood of matched lays 'bouncing' back up to their trade out point.

8. Reduce the odds at which you are prepared to lay. For example, in longer races you can probably lay up to odds of 20. In sprints I'd keep it below 10.0 or even 5.0. This will reduce the number of qualifying selections at any given time but protect against a sudden drop of a higher priced runner.

9. Think about reducing your stakes a bit compared to those you use in longer races.

That's enough for you to be getting on with. Remember, use simulation mode until you are happy with what you are doing. Let me know how you get on.

Decisions Decisions

You may have seen a tweet I made the other day regarding my work status. To cut a long story short, the last long term and major client I had has decided to seek IT support elsewhere and has terminated our business relationship essentially making me unemployed. Whilst that causes initial financial concern in the short term it is something of a blessing in disguise.

I've been running my own IT support business since 1993 but the last 8-10 years have been an ever increasing struggle. My heart simply wasn't in it any more but given the amount of work that that firm gave me, combined with the freedom I had, it was difficult to turn it down and close the business. That decision has now been made for me.

I need to decide what to do with my life now. The obvious thing would be to go full time trading. You'd think anyway. The trouble is, as I've stated many times on this blog in the past, I've never had the inclination to do so. Indeed, even as a part time hobby I frequently get bored with the whole process and have been known to take frequent prolonged breaks from trading.

I'm in the fortunate position that I do not need a lot of money. The mortgage and car are paid for; the kids have left home and I have no debts. I've always lived a fairly frugal existence. I can live on less than £800 a month which covers all my utilities, day-to-day motoring costs and groceries.

That £800 boils down to £40 per day, Monday through to Friday. Surely even I should be able to achieve that! I simply need to do what I normally do but with a professional mindset and not that of a hobbiest.

So I've decided, for the moment, to take the semi-professional route - starting tomorrow, 1st Sept. Mornings will be spent applying for full time work and afternoons will be spent in the horse racing markets looking to replace the money I'll lose by winding up my business.

This will be a huge leap for me so if anyone out there who has made that psychological leap into professional trading please feel free to offer any advice.

Rugby Union Trading

It's been a while since I posted. Indeed it's been a while since I did any trading. I think it is about time I got back on the horse as it were...

Last Autumn when the Rugby Union World Cup was on I spent as much time as I could trading the markets - or learning to trade the markets I should say. I was immediately taken with the trading opportunities available.

With the Six Nations kicking off yesterday I took the opportunity to get involved again and I'm delighted to say things went very well indeed - as the two images below indicate. Unfortunately I missed the Ireland v Wales game this afternoon.

If yesterday's performance is anything to go by I'll be getting involved in as many games as I can in the future. It is a shame that liquidity in the weekend club matches is nowhere near what it is in the Six Nations or the World Cup. Still, it is useful having another string to one's bow.

France v Italy Six Nations

Scotland v England Six Nations

Lay Of The Day - Dec 2015

http://1drv.ms/1NpOYej
After six months the Lay Of The Day trial comes to a close.

I'm delighted to finish with a profit of 36pts which was only spoilt by a rather disastrous week at the tail end of November which saw the quick loss of some 20pts.

That blip aside progress was steady throughout the trial and I see no reason why it wouldn't continue to be over the longer term.

The exercise threw up a couple of interesting observations that need further investigation:

1. A significant number of the selections drifted in the time between them being announced on Twitter and the scheduled off time opening the door for the possibility of trading them pre-off.

2. The vast majority of the selections shortened in-running from their BSP giving the possibility of either a back-to-lay in-running trade or simply laying them in-running at a slightly lower price instead of taking BSP.

I'll be continuing my investigations into those two possibilities as I keep the lay of the day going.

With the public trial at an end it only remains for me to thank you for following and posting comments and feedback.